THE QUANTUM INTELLIGENCER

Bottom Line Up Front: A leading quantum computing expert now assesses a realistic possibility that fault-tolerant quantum computers capable of running Shor's algorithm—which breaks RSA and ECC encryption—could emerge before the next US presidential election (November 2028), posing an immediate and severe threat to global data security, financial systems, and national infrastructure. Threat Identification: The threat is the operationalization of fault-tolerant quantum computers executing Shor's algorithm, which can efficiently factor large integers and solve discrete logarithms, thereby breaking asymmetric encryption standards (e.g., RSA, ECC) that underpin most digital security, including HTTPS, blockchain, and secure communications. Probability Assessment: High likelihood within the next 3 years (by late 2028), based on accelerated progress in quantum error correction and hardware stability, as indicated by Scott Aaronson's updated assessment (Aaronson, 2025-11-13). Previously considered a longer-term risk, this timeline suggests urgent action is required. Impact Analysis: Catastrophic if unprepared—widespread decryption of stored and in-transit sensitive data (e.g., government secrets, financial transactions, personal information), collapse of trust in digital systems, economic disruption, and strategic advantages to adversaries with quantum capabilities. Systems relying on classical cryptography become vulnerable retroactively if encrypted data has been harvested. Recommended Actions: 1. Immediately prioritize and accelerate migration to quantum-resistant cryptographic algorithms (e.g., NIST-post quantum cryptography standards). 2. Conduct urgent audits of critical infrastructure and data storage for quantum vulnerability. 3. Increase investment in quantum key distribution (QKD) and hybrid cryptographic solutions as interim measures. 4. Enhance international cooperation on quantum security standards and threat intelligence sharing. 5. Launch public and private sector awareness campaigns to drive timely adoption of mitigations. Confidence Matrix: - Threat Identification: High confidence (based on well-established cryptographic theory and expert consensus). - Probability Assessment: Medium-high confidence (direct statement from a top expert, but dependent on continued R&D progress without unforeseen setbacks). - Impact Analysis: High confidence (extensive research supports severe consequences of quantum decryption). - Recommended Actions: High confidence (aligns with NIST and cybersecurity community guidance). Citations: - Aaronson, S. (2025-11-13). Statement on possibility of fault-tolerant quantum computer running Shor's algorithm pre-2028 election. Source: https://t.co/aEFHxqYk24