THE QUANTUM INTELLIGENCER

**Executive Intelligence Briefing: Bitcoin's Quantum Contingency Playbook** *Activation Trigger:* Public demonstration of a ~100 logical qubit quantum computer (providing ~1 order-of-magnitude warning before CRQCs reach ~1000 logical qubits required for ECDLP attacks). *Threat Scope:* ~1.7M BTC in P2PK addresses + ~4.6M BTC in other exposed public key scripts = ~6.3M BTC at risk from long-range attacks. Short-range attacks (transaction hijacking) require more powerful CRQCs and are less immediately feasible. *Response Timeline:* Basic quantum resistance (prohibition of vulnerable outputs, migration mechanisms) targeted within 4-5 months post-activation; full migration (including vulnerable address management) by month 12. *Key Strategies:* Commit-Delay-Reveal (CDR)/Lifeboat protocols for migration; post-quantum signature scheme integration; three-team coordination (Dev, Crypt, Comms). *High-Conviction Prediction:* Bitcoin can achieve quantum resistance within a year of CRQC demonstration (85% confidence), but community consensus on handling vulnerable funds (burn/steal/hourglass) may delay implementation. *Early Warning:* Monitor quantum computing announcements for ~100 logical qubit milestones; track Bitcoin Core developer discussions on post-quantum algorithms.