THE QUANTUM INTELLIGENCER

**Bottom Line Up Front:** Practical quantum computing could compromise the Elliptic Curve Digital Signature Algorithm (ECDSA) securing Satoshi Nakamoto's ~1M Bitcoin (approx. $68B as of 2025), potentially allowing theft or rendering the assets unspendable within 10–15 years. This threatens Bitcoin’s integrity and market stability, necessitating urgent cryptographic migration to quantum-resistant algorithms. **Threat Identification:** Quantum computers, using Shor’s algorithm, could break ECDSA—the foundation of Bitcoin’s digital signatures—exposing all unspent transaction outputs (UTXOs), including Satoshi’s dormant holdings [1]. Unlike brute-force attacks on mining (addressed by quantum-resistant hashing), signature forgery poses a direct theft risk. **Probability Assessment:** - **Timeline:** Estimates suggest ECDSA-breaking quantum capability may emerge in 10–15 years, though accelerated R&D could shorten this. - **Likelihood:** High probability post-quantum threshold, given global quantum computing investments. **Impact Analysis:** - **Direct:** Theft or freezing of Satoshi’s 1M BTC could trigger market panic, devaluing Bitcoin and eroding trust in decentralized systems. - **Systemic:** Legacy Bitcoin addresses become insecure, risking widespread asset loss if preemptive upgrades are delayed. **Recommended Actions:** 1. **Priority:** Accelerate adoption of post-quantum cryptography (e.g., lattice-based signatures) via Bitcoin Improvement Proposals (BIPs). 2. **Community:** Educate stakeholders on quantum risks and encourage migration to quantum-resistant wallets. 3. **Research:** Fund and collaborate on quantum-secure blockchain prototypes. **Confidence Matrix:** - **Threat Identification:** High confidence (established cryptographic theory). - **Timeline:** Medium confidence (dependent on unquantified quantum advances). - **Impact:** High confidence (based on Bitcoin’s market role and immutability design). - **Actions:** Medium-high confidence (feasible but requires coordinated effort). **Citations:** [1] TradingView, "What happens to Satoshi’s 1M Bitcoin if quantum computers go live? —Inspector Grey, Migration Office