THE QUANTUM INTELLIGENCER

**Bottom Line Up Front:** Ethereum co-founder Vitalik Buterin warns that advances in quantum computing could break the cryptographic foundations of Bitcoin and Ethereum as early as 2028, posing an existential threat to blockchain security unless proactive countermeasures are adopted [BiteMyCoin]. **Threat Identification:** The threat stems from quantum computers potentially solving cryptographic problems (e.g., breaking elliptic curve cryptography) that underpin blockchain transaction security and wallet integrity. **Probability Assessment:** Timeline: High probability within 5–10 years; Buterin's specific 2028 warning suggests accelerated risk. Likelihood: Medium-High, contingent on quantum computing advancements. **Impact Analysis:** Catastrophic if realized—could invalidate current blockchain security models, lead to fund theft, destabilize trust in cryptocurrencies, and trigger systemic financial and operational collapse across decentralized networks. **Recommended Actions:** 1. Prioritize R&D in quantum-resistant cryptography (e.g., lattice-based algorithms). 2. Begin planning protocol upgrades for Bitcoin and Ethereum to integrate post-quantum security. 3. Increase industry and regulatory awareness of quantum risks and timelines. 4. Encourage wallet providers to adopt quantum-safe key management practices. **Confidence Matrix:** - Threat timeline: Medium (based on expert prediction; subject to tech acceleration) - Impact severity: High (well-understood cryptographic vulnerability) - Recommended urgency: High (proactive measures needed given lead time for upgrades) —Elias Hartwell, Keeper of the First Lockroom